Perhaps we are in front of one of the latest electoral processes in the occupied territories where the electorate is in favor of the indigenous Turkish Turkish Cypriots, the Assistant Professor at the Department of Turkish and Middle Eastern Studies of the University of Cyprus, Nikos Moudouros, analyzing the election scene and the election scene, and the election scene.
The "apolitical" phenomenon
Answering a question about the abstinence that in recent years in all electoral processes in the occupied territories is increasing, Mr Moudouros said that the Turkish community was much more politicized in terms of participation in "elections" compared to the Turkish Cypriots, but it seems that from one point onwards, for different reasons. The tendency of "apolitical" appears as a new phenomenon. The undecided voters, mostly young people. He added, it is a critical mass for this electoral process.
Electorate
According to the latest announcement of the "Supreme Electoral Council", the number of people who have the right to vote on October 19 is 218,313, while in the respective "presidential" of 2020 was about 200,000. The increase in the "electorate" in such a short period of time is not normal, he said, and this results from the abnormal increase in "citizenship". Noting that in the occupied average births a year is about 2500 - 3000, he noted that the normal increase in voters had to be a corresponding annual number.
However, he said, for the last 10 years the concession of "citizenship" and therefore the granting of political rights is on average of 4500 - 5000 per year. This means, he explained, that the increase in the electorate comes from an abnormal increase in the concession of "nationality". So the 218000 number announced that they have the right to vote for October 19, Mr Moudouros said, includes an indigenous population, that is, the T/K born in Cyprus and/or by a mother or father T/C, Turkish settlers who have taken their "citizenship" But, he said, there is no participation in the ballot box of this population.
As for how many electors are compared to the Turkish Cypriots, the Assistant Professor explains that if we compare the number of Turkish Turkish T/Cs, or how many Turks from Turkey, "nationals" of the pseudo -state have the right to vote in the elections. Body Balance is 55-60% in favor of the Turkish T/C. That is, the Native T/C vote is 55-60% and 40-45% is the vote of foreign, mainly Turkish and Kurdish settlers. This means that we are perhaps one of the latest elections where balance is slightly in favor of the indigenous population. "
If the dramatic increase in the concession of "citizenship" continues to one or two elections, the percentages will change against the Turkish Cypriots, Mr Moudouros noted.
Definition of will and results
On the occasion of the positions of smaller T/C parties for demographic alteration and thus the results of the "elections", Nikos Moudouros pointed out that since 1976 the indigenous political will have been altered by 1976. Since 1976, he added, there are ideological currents in the Turkish community that support either the "election" boycott or the complaint of the results due to the deterioration of the will of the Turkish T/C.
There is, he said, the big issue of Turkey's interventions that is not just about altering the T/C demography, which has not stopped so far. As it is, he continued, after each electoral process, always the rise of the confrontation for Turkey's interventions.
Campaign
Nikos Moudouros was called upon to comment on the campaigns and messages sent by the two gentlemen, Ersin Tatar and Toufan Erhurman, as he pointed out, Tatar's election campaign has been designed entirely and is fully designed. Even the font on posters of his pre -election resemble with AKP campaigns in Turkey, he observed. It focuses more on the identification of Ankara - Tatar for the form of a solution to the Cyprus problem and highlights the Cyprus issue and what it has achieved in the last 5 years.
On the other hand, said Mr Moudouros, Toufan Erhurman, while he could step on the Cyprus issue and, although characterizing the 5 years of Tatar's term, his staff chose to convey the pre -election confrontation in the style, his responsibilities and duties and duties. He estimates that this has happened to charge Ersin Tatar the people's discontent for the "government".
In the Cyprus issue, we have the recording of two different positions, said Nikos Moudouros. One is the traditional position of the T/C right: a two -state solution, sovereign equality as Tatar uses the terminology and that this position leads to cooperation with Ankara, which - explains - is essential within the T/C right.
On the other hand, he continued, Erhurman clearly puts his place for a relaxed federation, which he has clarified in his interviews with the powers that the central government should have in his view: energy, hydrocarbons, designation of sea zones and management.
Mr Moudouros also explained that because Mr Erhurman unites different groups of the Turkish community and opposition, which is both against Ersin Tatar and the CCC, he highlights the visibility of the constituencies, he uses the terminology of the Annan Plan, It ignores the corresponding Community rights of the Turkish Cypriots, and stresses the need for negotiations even with Turkey, which differs in its positions in the Cyprus issue.
For the first time in the RTK in such a strong way, he is making a special attempt to attract votes of Turkish and Kurdish settlers and immigrants, he noted, through his position for the complete restoration of human rights, for example, of the children of mixed marriages and the intense "mark" of associations and associations. In a conservative electorate, Mr Moudouros, Tufan Erhurman, noted, from one point onwards, gave such voters to be specially burdensome because of their strategic importance.
Which areas judge the outcome
It will be important to see the results of the areas from Famagusta, Trikomo to Rizokarpaso, the Assistant Professor said in a question about which areas will judge the outcome. Because, he explained, there is a density of settlers' population without it mean that the settlers are now only in those areas. The settlers of that area, he added, may be the focus of Turkey's election campaign in favor of Tatar.
Turkey's intervention
Nikos Moudouros stressed that there is no electoral process that there is no intervention by Turkey in the occupied territories. After the invasion, there is Turkey's interest over time in what political leadership will be and intervenes to influence what the leadership of the political system will be there.
Turkey, he explained, uses specific ways, methods, persons, mechanisms if it realizes that the candidate or political position he does not wish to win are threatening or not.
In 2020, he said, Mustafa Akinci was a threat to the concept of the then Turkish leader's disagreement with Turkey not only in the Cyprus issue, but throughout Turkey's regional foreign policy such as Syria, in relation to Arab Spring and elsewhere. This, he said, today does not have Tufan Erhurman, not threatening. On the contrary, Mr Erhurman does not refer to such issues.
Mr Moudouros also noted that in 2020 there was not only the intervention in favor of Ersin Tatar, but also the pure demonization and even threats against the life of Mustafa Akinci and his associates.
Today, he continued, Tatar is clearly supported by the statements of the Turkish president on the Cyprus issue, the presence of the Turkish Vice -President in the inauguration of works in the occupied and practical via electoral staffs associated with the AKP and have been in the occupied for a long time.
"Without excluding that this situation will not be intensified next time, the reason for Turkey's lower intervention this time is the difficulty of convincing the electorate as in 2020 in all ways used at the time."
He indicated that there is a percentage of undecided, but those who have decided to vote in the upcoming "presidential" did not do so in the Cyprus issue. Their crisis is related to the economy, how they changed their socio-economic context and relations with Turkey, corruption, complexity, scandals.
Asked what he thinks will be the priority of one or the other after the "presidential elections", Nikos Moudouros said that in principle he would be very different. He believes that if Tufan Erhurman is elected his priority will be much more complex, it will concern the Cyprus issue and how to normalize his relations with Turkey, as he says that in order to overcome the disagreements that really exist, there must be some kind of agreement.
He also believes that either Mr Erhurman is elected or Mr Tatar is elected after the "presidential" in a short period of time, a "parliamentary" elections will be held, which besides the request of the RTK is now a position within the cooperation of "co -ruling" parties.
In the event of Tatar's re -election, Mr Moudouros believes that what will be his priority is not the Cyprus issue or relations with Turkey, but how they will renew the trilateral "government" since through the existence of this coalition, the new "citizenship" is given to the "citizenship".
