Are Cypriots sleepwalking into another tragedy, one that could match or even exceed those of 1963–64 and 1974, which resulted in so many deaths, displacements and destitution?
In the south of the island, there have been numerous recent protests against Israel’s growing presence and against attempts by the Israeli government to dictate what Greek Cypriots may or may not say about its actions in Gaza. Some of this resentment stems from the uncontrolled expansion of the Israeli community itself, with local reports estimating that more than 15,000 Israeli citizens have now taken up residence or acquired property in southern Cyprus, a development that many Greek Cypriots view with growing unease.
In the north, Turkish Cypriots have voiced similar disapproval, alarmed by the increasing number of Israelis and Jewish people from other countries settling in the area, and worrying about what might lie behind this influx. Local newspapers warn that northern Cyprus is being painted by Israel as a refuge for terrorists, a fabrication many believe is designed to create a pretext for an Israeli strike on the north.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been indicted at home for corruption and faces a request from the International Criminal Court for his arrest over war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza. His “get out of jail card” lies in maintaining “forever wars” that keep him in power and protect him with the immunity that comes with high office.
Netanyahu’s Finance and Defence Minister, Bezalel Smotrich, has described the starvation of 2.2 million Gazans as “justified and moral”. His National Security Minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, has been convicted by Israeli courts of racist incitement. Even the United Kingdom, one of Israel’s staunchest allies, has now banned both men from entering its territory for inciting extremist violence and human rights abuses, yet they continue to serve in the Israeli government.
In just the last two years, it is this volatile and extremist leadership that has driven Israel’s military incursions into no fewer than five countries (Syria, Lebanon, Iran, Iraq and Yemen) while waging a campaign in the West Bank and Gaza widely condemned as genocidal. Will Cyprus become yet another battlefield for Israel?
Is the current Israeli leadership, consumed by corruption trials and ideological extremism, really the ally that the Greek Cypriot administration imagines, or is it a power pursuing its own strategic foothold in the Eastern Mediterranean?
Since 2017, the Greek Cypriot administration has courted Israel through “security cooperation” involving joint military drills, air-defence training and long-range strike simulations. More recently, it acquired Israel’s Barak MX air-defence system and agreed to import Israeli gas via a new pipeline from the Karish field. These developments may appear to strengthen Cyprus’ defences and economy, yet they bind the island ever more tightly to Israel’s regional ambitions. Once Israeli forces, infrastructure and energy routes are embedded, they will not be easily removed. The island risks becoming an extension of Israel’s platform for regional war operations and a potential target in any wider conflict.
For its size, Cyprus is one of the most heavily militarised territories on earth. The United Kingdom retains its sovereign bases at Akrotiri and Dhekelia, covering over 250 square kilometres. France operates from Mari and Paphos, the United States from the British bases, and Israel trains in Greek Cypriot skies and waters. The United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus still holds its 180-kilometre buffer zone, covering about 346 square kilometres and patrolled by armed troops and observation units.
Across the island, the level of militarisation is alarming. In the north, around 40,000 Turkish troops are now believed to be reinforced with new equipment and drone deployments, following security threats from figures close to the Israeli government. In the south, the Republic of Cyprus fields Russian-made tanks and air-defence systems, recently upgraded with Israel’s Barak MX. Its National Guard trains with Israeli and French air forces, while British Typhoons fly from Akrotiri. Naval patrols from France, Israel, the United States and Turkey also operate in the surrounding seas.
What was once an island of peacekeeping has become a patchwork of overlapping commands, each serving interests far beyond Cypriot shores. In such a crowded field, it is no longer clear whose radar watches whom, or whose orders take precedence when crisis comes. Should hostilities break out in the region, Cyprus would be on the front line before its government could even decide which side it was on.
Both Netanyahu and Smotrich have made no secret of their ambitions for a “Greater Israel” that extends far beyond recognised borders. Cyprus does not appear on that map, yet in practice it risks becoming part of this expanding sphere of influence and a de facto extension of Israel’s strategic reach in the region. The recent confrontation with Hezbollah showed how easily the region could slide towards escalation, and next time the outcome may be far less contained. As Israel’s military and economic presence in Cyprus deepens, so too does its ability to shape Cypriot policy to serve its own strategic interests.
For all its serious imperfections, it is undeniable that Cyprus has enjoyed half a century of peaceful coexistence and a growing accord between the two communities. But is peace itself now at stake?
If there is another war in Cyprus, it will not be the greater powers who suffer most, but the Cypriots themselves. The two leaders, Tufan Erhurman and Nikos Christodoulides, owe it to their communities to make demilitarisation within their respective areas of control a priority in negotiations alongside Greece, Turkey and the United Kingdom, under the auspices of the UN secretary-general. After all, demilitarisation remains one of the rare points of consensus between the two communities and a cornerstone of any credible future settlement.
